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Study shows that e-trucks will be market leader from early 2030s

A new study called “The dawn of electrified trucking: Routes to decarbonising commercial vehicles” looked at the future global penetration of e-trucks. Worth mentioning at this point is Strategy&. The strategy consulting of the management consultancy Pricewaterhouse Coopers. The study concludes that by 2030, nearly one in three registered trucks in Europe, North America and Greater China will be electric. Less than 5 years later, a market share of over 70% is already expected. As of 2025 electrified trucks will not only catch up with internal combustion trucks in terms of total cost of ownership. Rather, they will overtake them. Not to be forgotten are hydrogen trucks, which continue to receive consideration in the logistic industry. One notable point is, however, that at least close to one billion euros have to be invested by that time to achieve the necessary infrastructure. In order to make these statements with such clarity, regulatory, cost, infrastructure and public perception were analyzed and identified. And with reference to these four components, “regional tipping points for the respective market diffusion of zero emission vehicles” were forecast. Other criteria include industrial policy, economic and social developments in the coming years. The change is being accelerated in particular by increasingly stringent regulatory requirements and, at the same time, falling total cost of ownership for ZEVs. It is also well known that many governments want to realign energy policy and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The latter, in particular, is what motivates people to put their trust in electricity. The regulatory requirements for emission reduction have released a great powertrain development. At the same time, progresses regarding to charging concepts are needed. Mentionable is the Megawatt Charging System. Electrified trucks are able to absorb a reach of 400 kilometers in only 30 minutes. If it is also invested in charging points where truck drivers can charge over night, there will be whole loading parcs on highways. The investment in question is likely to be around 8.5 million euros for 6 megawatt charging points and 34 CCS charging points. But it is unlikely to stop there, as a pure focus on battery-powered trucks is not possible at this point. The hydrogen economy and the fuel cell still come to mind.

In terms of costs, the matter is in higher realms. For a first start, around 120 megawatt charging stations and 70 hydrogen filling stations can be built by 2027 with the help of approximately 1.4 million euros, so that an adequate infrastructure is in place for the time being. To achieve a truly resilient infrastructure system in Europe, the cost is around 15 billion euros. This sum would be able to reach a construction figure of 1,800 MCS loaders. The purchase price of an e-truck is also significantly more expensive at first glance. In terms of total costs, however, they will beat conventional combustion engines as early as 2025. The main causes are extreme price jumps in fossil fuels, rising CO2 taxes in the long term, as well as cost reductions in batteries achieved through economies of scale and the lower maintenance costs. They will even gain a cost advantage of 30% in subsequent years. Of course, the development also depends on the future electricity prices. However, it is equally dependent on regulatory incentives. One example is the reduced toll, which can save logistic companies up to 25,000 euros per truck and year.